The implications of megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation for changes in global physical activity

Abstract

Physical inactivity accounts for more than 3 million deaths per year, most from non-communicable diseases in low-income and middle-income countries. We used reviews of physical activity interventions and a simulation model to examine how megatrends in information and communication technology and transportation directly and indirectly affect levels of physical activity across countries of low, middle, and high income. The model suggested that the direct and potentiating eff ects of information and communication technology, especially mobile phones, are nearly equal in magnitude to the mean eff ects of planned physical activity interventions. The greatest potential to increase population physical activity might thus be in creation of synergistic policies in sectors outside health including communication and transportation. However, there remains a glaring mismatch between where studies on physical activity interventions are undertaken and where the potential lies in low-income and middle-income countries for population-level effects that will truly affect global health.

Figure 1. Internet users (A), mobile phone users (B), and car ownership (C), by country income

Each country in this density-equalising map is resized according to the number of internet or mobile-phone users or car owners with the Gastner and Newman algorithm.

Figure 2. Potential effect estimate for information and communication technologies

(A) Internet. (B) Mobile phone. Clinical=interventions in a health-care setting.

Figure 3. Mismatch between world population and evidence for physical activity interventions as measured by scientific publications

Countries in this density-equalising map are resized according to country population (A) and number of times a country is reported to be included in a review (B).