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. 2012;7(8):e42444.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0042444. Epub 2012 Aug 1.

Interannual variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Erie

Richard P Stumpf  1 , Timothy T Wynne, David B Baker, Gary L Fahnenstiel
Affiliations

Interannual variability of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Erie

Richard P Stumpf et al. PLoS One. 2012.

Abstract

After a 20-year absence, severe cyanobacterial blooms have returned to Lake Erie in the last decade, in spite of negligible change in the annual load of total phosphorus (TP). Medium-spectral Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) imagery was used to quantify intensity of the cyanobacterial bloom for each year from 2002 to 2011. The blooms peaked in August or later, yet correlate to discharge (Q) and TP loads only for March through June. The influence of the spring TP load appears to have started in the late 1990 s, after Dreissenid mussels colonized the lake, as hindcasts prior to 1998 are inconsistent with the observed blooms. The total spring Q or TP load appears sufficient to predict bloom magnitude, permitting a seasonal forecast prior to the start of the bloom.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Map of western Lake Erie.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Time series of bloom intensity (black) and area >0.001 CI (blue) from the cumulative CI for each 10-day composites.
The intensity is the sum of CI-values at all pixels within the image. The area is determined from the total number of pixels with CI >0.001. Circles mark the three composites used to determine the annual severity. Each year has 15 composites, from June 1–10 to October 19–28. The dashed grid line marks the August 10–19 period.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Mean of the three 10-day composites (identified by circles in Figure 2 ) used to compute intensities for each year for western Lake.
Black indicates CI< = 0. Brown is land. Maumee River input is the far western end of the lake (see Figure 1).
Figure 4
Figure 4. Aerial photograph of Microcystis bloom in western Lake Erie, early in the 2009 bloom, showing the spatial variability during intense blooms.
“A” shows less dense and mixed bloom, “B” shows denser bloom aggregating at the water surface. Mixing can be seeing within the boat wake. Image width is approximately 400 m (credit Tom Archer).
Figure 5
Figure 5. Bloom intensity from 2002 to 2011 compared to loads with CI of 1 equivalent to 300 km2 of 105 cells mL−1 (A) TP for June, with regression for eight years excluding 2004 and 2011; (B) cumulative TP for March to June with regression (and regression confidence interval) for bloom years (filled squares); (C) cumulative SRP for March to June like (B) with regression line and confidence for bloom years; (D) average Q for March to June, with linear and exponential regression for bloom years.
Shading in (d) indicates the RSE for each of the two regressions, which closely matches the regression confidence (except near 2011).
Figure 6
Figure 6. Monthly mean water temperature in western Lake Erie from 2002–2011. Tick marks indicate July of each year.
Figure 7
Figure 7. Spring (March to June) load of NOx nitrogen compared to CI showing the lack of a relationship (r2 = 0.29, p = 0.11).
Figure 8
Figure 8. Observed and modeled CI. CI determined here (black squares) from 2002–2011.
Period of projected CI is shown in light gray, with black circles giving projected CI based on reports of blooms or not. 1995 and 1998 blooms are assumed to be equal to 2003, other years are assumed zero (no bloom) based on lack of reports. Red circles are CI estimated from exponential Q model. Green triangles are CI from TP for June. Triangles with an X have ratio of TPJune/TPMarch-May >0.2. Dark gray shade marks time period when the models fail to predict occurrence or absence of blooms.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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References

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Publication types

Grants and funding

This study was partially funded by NASA Applied Science Program announcement NNH08ZDA001N, contract NNH09AL53I, and the NOAA Oceans and Human Health Initiative. MERIS imagery was provided by the European Space Agency (Category-1 Proposal C1P.9975). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.