Prediction of functional aerobic capacity without exercise testing

Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1990 Dec;22(6):863-70. doi: 10.1249/00005768-199012000-00021.


The purpose of this study was to develop functional aerobic capacity prediction models without using exercise tests (N-Ex) and to compare the accuracy with Astrand single-stage submaximal prediction methods. The data of 2,009 subjects (9.7% female) were randomly divided into validation (N = 1,543) and cross-validation (N = 466) samples. The validation sample was used to develop two N-Ex models to estimate VO2peak. Gender, age, body composition, and self-report activity were used to develop two N-Ex prediction models. One model estimated percent fat from skinfolds (N-Ex %fat) and the other used body mass index (N-Ex BMI) to represent body composition. The multiple correlations for the developed models were R = 0.81 (SE = 5.3 and R = 0.78 (SE = 5.6 This accuracy was confirmed when applied to the cross-validation sample. The N-Ex models were more accurate than what was obtained from VO2peak estimated from the Astrand prediction models. The SEs of the Astrand models ranged from 5.5-9.7 The N-Ex models were cross-validated on 59 men on hypertensive medication and 71 men who were found to have a positive exercise ECG. The SEs of the N-Ex models ranged from 4.6-5.4 with these subjects.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Publication types

  • Comparative Study

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Body Composition
  • Cardiovascular Physiological Phenomena
  • Exercise / physiology*
  • Exercise Test
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological*
  • Oxygen Consumption*
  • Regression Analysis
  • Sex Factors