Projected impact of urbanization on cardiovascular disease in China

Int J Public Health. 2012 Oct;57(5):849-54. doi: 10.1007/s00038-012-0400-y. Epub 2012 Aug 24.


Objectives: The Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) Policy Model-China, a national scale cardiovascular disease computer simulation model, was used to project future impact of urbanization.

Methods: Populations and cardiovascular disease incidence rates were stratified into four submodels: North-Urban, South-Urban, North-Rural, and South-Rural. 2010 was the base year, and high and low urbanization rate scenarios were used to project 2030 populations.

Results: Rural-to-urban migration, population growth, and aging were projected to more than double cardiovascular disease events in urban areas and increase events by 27.0-45.6% in rural areas. Urbanization is estimated to raise age-standardized coronary heart disease incidence by 73-81 per 100,000 and stroke incidence only slightly.

Conclusions: Rural-to-urban migration will likely be a major demographic driver of the cardiovascular disease epidemic in China.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / epidemiology*
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality
  • China / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Dynamics*
  • Rural Population / statistics & numerical data*
  • Survival Rate
  • Urban Population / statistics & numerical data*
  • Urbanization*