Purpose: The outcome of renal transplantation is difficult to predict, even with an allograft biopsy. The aim of this study was to develop a sensitive, specific and noninvasive method for prediction of acute cellular rejection (ACR).
Methods: Luminex analysis was used to determine the levels of 95 cytokines/chemokines and their soluble receptors in sera from recipients with: ACR (in the first month post-transplantation, before and during rejection, and after rejection reversal); stable allograft function; delayed graft function (DGF); pulmonary infection. Evaluation of significant differential protein expression in ACR patients compared with stable allograft controls revealed a three-analyte combination as a marker of renal transplantation outcome. The predictive value of this combination was further validated in DGF and infection groups and in a blind binary code study of 24 additional serum samples.
Results: Significant differential expression was detected in 26 proteins expressed in patients during the period preceding an ACR episode compared with stable controls. A blood test for discrimination of such patients was developed based on the simultaneous quantification of three analytes (IL-1 receptor antagonist, IL-20 and sCD40 ligand). This test exhibited 90.9 % sensitivity, 96 % specificity, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 95.2 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 92.3 %. Moreover, this combination allowed discrimination between patients with ACR and DGF and pulmonary infection.
Conclusions: With further development and validation, this blood test can be used to predict ACR and direct the treatment of transplant patients in the clinic.