Do implicit attitudes predict actual voting behavior particularly for undecided voters?

PLoS One. 2012;7(8):e44130. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0044130. Epub 2012 Aug 29.

Abstract

The prediction of voting behavior of undecided voters poses a challenge to psychologists and pollsters. Recently, researchers argued that implicit attitudes would predict voting behavior particularly for undecided voters whereas explicit attitudes would predict voting behavior particularly for decided voters. We tested this assumption in two studies in two countries with distinct political systems in the context of real political elections. Results revealed that (a) explicit attitudes predicted voting behavior better than implicit attitudes for both decided and undecided voters, and (b) implicit attitudes predicted voting behavior better for decided than undecided voters. We propose that greater elaboration of attitudes produces stronger convergence between implicit and explicit attitudes resulting in better predictive validity of both, and less incremental validity of implicit over explicit attitudes for the prediction of voting behavior. However, greater incremental predictive validity of implicit over explicit attitudes may be associated with less elaboration.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Attitude*
  • Behavior*
  • Decision Making*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Politics*

Grants and funding

This research was supported by Project Implicit and the Fritz Thyssen Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.