State-level projections of cancer-related medical care costs: 2010 to 2020

Abstract

Background: As the population ages, the financial amount spent on cancer care is expected to increase substantially. In this study, we projected cancer-related medical costs by state from 2010 through 2020.

Methods: We used pooled Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data for 2004 to 2008 and US Census Bureau population projections to produce state-level estimates of the number of people treated for cancer and the average cost of their treatment, from a health system perspective, by age group (18-44, 45-64, >65 years) and sex. In the base model, we assumed that the percentage of people in each of the 6 age-by-sex categories who had been treated for cancer would remain constant and that the inflation-adjusted average cancer treatment cost per person would increase at the same rate as Congressional Budget Office projections of overall medical spending.

Results: We projected that state-level cancer-related medical costs would increase by 34% to 115% (median = 72%) and that state-level costs in 2020 would range from $347 million to $28.3 billion in 2010 dollars (median = $3.7 billion).

Conclusions: The number of people treated for cancer and the costs of their cancer-related medical care are projected to increase substantially for each state. Effective prevention and early detection strategies are needed to limit the growing burden of cancer.

Figure 1

Projected State Costs of Cancer Care in 2020 Estimates of state expenditures for cancer care in 2020 are based on the assumptions that the percentage of people treated for cancer remains constant within age, sex, and state categories but that state population counts and population distributions by age and sex will change as projected by the Census and that the inflation-adjusted cost of cancer care per person will increase by 3.6% per year. Costs in 2010 million US dollars. Color-coded categories represent quintiles.

Figure 2

Projected Increase in State Costs of Cancer Care Between 2010 and 2020 Estimates of state expenditures for cancer care in 2010 (white) and the estimated increase in these expenditures between 2010 and 2020 (blue) are based on assumptions that the percentage of people treated for cancer remains constant within age, sex, and state categories; that the inflation-adjusted cost of cancer care is unchanged; and that state populations and the population distributions by age and sex will change as projected by the Census. Costs in 2010 billion US dollars.