Incidence of chronic kidney disease and its risk factors, results of over 10 year follow up in an Iranian cohort

PLoS One. 2012;7(9):e45304. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045304. Epub 2012 Sep 27.


To examine, the predictors of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a community-based cohort of Middle East population, during a mean follow-up of 9.9 years. In a sample of 3313 non-CKD Iranian adults ≥20 years the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated at baseline and at three year intervals during three consecutive phases. The eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was defined as CKD. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent variables associated with incident CKD. The incidence density rates of CKD were 285.3 and 132.6 per 10,000 person-year, among women and men, respectively. Female gender per se was associated with higher risk of CKD, compared with males. Among women, age, eGFR, known diabetes, being single or divorced/widowed, hypertension (marginally significant) and current smoking were independent risk factors for CKD; however the intermediate degree of education and family history of diabetes decreased the risk by 40% (P<0.05). Among male subjects, independent predictors of developing CKD included aging and hypertension (with significantly higher risk than in women, P for interaction<0.05), eGFR, new diagnosed diabetes, high normal blood pressure; abdominal obesity decreased the risk of CKD about 30% which was marginally significant. In the Iranian population,>2% of individuals develops CKD each year. Our findings confirmed that sex- specific risk predictors should be considered in primary prevention for incident CKD.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Female
  • Glomerular Filtration Rate / physiology
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / complications
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / epidemiology*
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / etiology
  • Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / physiopathology
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Distribution
  • Smoking / adverse effects

Grant support

This study was supported by grant number 121 from the National Research Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.