Background: The aim of the present study was to analyze in detail the time course of the incidence of radiation-induced late effects. For this purpose, unpublished data of patients treated by radiation therapy in Hamburg in the late 1980s were analyzed. Relatively large volumes were exposed to comparatively high doses, thus leading to a high rate of treatment-related side effects.
Patients and methods: A total of 180 consecutive patients received radiotherapy for prostate cancer. The median age was 66 years (range 41-88 years). The median of the maximum dose was 77.5 Gy (range 56.3-95 Gy) and overall treatment time was 51 days (range 28-128 days). Endpoints analyzed were late complications of grade 3 or higher, overall and disease-free survival, local tumor control, and distant metastases. Data analysis was actuarial and the log-rank test was used to compare the various subgroups.
Results: After 2 years, 80.5 ± 3.2% of the patients were without any complications of grade 3 or higher, and after 5 years a constant level of 70.3 ± 4.0% was approached. When multiple lesions occurred per patient, the later events were disregarded. A total of 66 complications occurred in 42 patients. The percentage of patients being free from late complications, plotted as a function of time after start of radiation therapy, was adequately described by an exponential function and a constant fraction. Complications approached a constant level of 70.3% at a rate of 5.3% per month. This means that patients who will develop a complication do so at exponential kinetics and at a relatively high rate, whereas about 70% of the patients will never experience a late effect even over long observation periods. After subdividing the maximum dose into three equal dose groups of 55 patients each (< 73.3 Gy, 73.3-80 Gy, > 80 Gy), the constant fraction decreased from 85.7 to 72.8% and 52.2%, whereas the incidence rate was 4.3%, 7.7%, and 5.6% per month and, thus, almost independent of radiation dose.
Conclusion: For a given group of patients, the rate of the incidence of late complications appears to be independent of radiation dose and (from analyzing data in the literature) independent of the grade of lesions, whereas the fraction of patients without late effects depends on both parameters.