Farr's law applied to AIDS projections

JAMA. 1990 Mar 16;263(11):1522-5.

Abstract

Farr's Law of Epidemics, first promulgated in 1840 and resurrected by Brownlee in the early 1900s, states that epidemics tend to rise and fall in a roughly symmetrical pattern that can be approximated by a normal bell-shaped curve. We applied this simple law to the reported annual incidence of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States from 1982 through 1987. The 6 years of incidence data closely fit a normal distribution that crests in late 1988 and then declines to a low point by the mid-1990s. The projected size of the epidemic falls in the range of 200 000 cases. A continuing incidence of endemic cases can be expected to emerge, but we believe it will occur at a low level.

MeSH terms

  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / epidemiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Homosexuality / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Substance Abuse, Intravenous / epidemiology
  • United States / epidemiology