Background: Asthma often begins in childhood or early adulthood and is a common disease among conscripts. The identification of long-term predictive factors for persistent asthma may lead to improved treatment opportunities and better disease control.
Objective: Our aim was to study the prognostic factors of the severity of asthma among 40-year-old male conscripts whose asthma began in youth.
Methods: We studied 119 conscripts who were referred to the Central Military Hospital during 1987-1990 due to asthma and who attended a follow-up visit approximately 20 years later. Asthma severity was evaluated during military service according to the medical records, and 20 years later during a follow-up visit using Global Initiative for Asthma guidelines. We used the results of lung function and allergy tests at baseline as predictors of current persistent asthma.
Results: Compared with baseline, asthma was less severe at follow-up: 11.8% of subjects were in remission, 42.0% had intermittent asthma, 10.9% had mild persistent asthma, and 35.3% had moderate/severe persistent asthma (p < .001). In multivariate models, a positive exercise test at baseline yielded an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 (95% CI 1.0-9.8, p = .046), a decreased FEV1/FVC % predicted an OR of 4.0 (95% CI 1.7-9.3, p = .002), and a decreased FEF50% % predicted an OR of 2.8 (95% CI 1.3-6.4, p = .012) for current persistent asthma.
Conclusions: About half of the men had persistent asthma at the 20-year follow-up. Positive exercise tests and obstructive spirometry results were related to the persistence of asthma and may be useful long-term prognostic factors for asthma severity.