Background and purpose: Stroke risk prediction scores have been designed to stratify risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events in patients with transient ischaemic attack (TIA) or minor ischaemic stroke (MIS).
Material and methods: Consecutive patients with TIA or MIS referring to Ghaem Hospital, Mashhad presenting within 24 hours from the onset of symptoms were recruited to the prospective cohort study between 2010 and 2011. MIS was defined as an ischaemic stroke with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score < 4. The end-point of the study was a new ischaemic cerebrovascular event or vascular death at 90 days and, additionally, at 3 days after the index TIA or MIS. The decision to admit and of method of treatment in each case was left to the discretion of the stroke neurologist. The predictive accuracy of the ABCD2 scoring system for recurrent stroke or TIA was quantified by the area under the curve (AUC), using the c-statistics.
Results: The study included 393 patients with TIA (238 males, 155 females) and 118 patients with MIS (77 males, 41 females). Among 511 patients with minor ischaemic events, 117 strokes (23.2%), 99 TIAs (19.6%), and 11 vascular deaths (2.2%) occurred within 3 months after the index event. The ABCD2 score had a weak predictive value for 3-month and 3-day recurrent stroke in patients with TIA (AUC = 0.599 and 0.591, respectively), but a high predictive value for 3-month and 3-day recurrent stroke in patients with MIS (AUC = 0.727 and 0.728, respectively).
Conclusion: The ABCD2 score is highly predictive for short-term recurrent stroke in patients with MIS but not in patients with TIA, although it was originally designed for patients with TIA.