Optimal decision rules for HTA under uncertainty: a wider, dynamic perspective

Health Econ. 2013 Dec;22(12):1507-14. doi: 10.1002/hec.2893. Epub 2012 Dec 7.


We present a two-period framework, which combines real option and decision-theoretic approaches to health technology assessment under uncertainty. By viewing adoption, treatment and research decisions as a single economic project, we illustrate how their key dimensions affect optimal rules. We consider the results in relation to the existing literature and argue that developments in this direction could contribute substantially to efficiency gains in resource allocation.

Keywords: dynamic programming; economic evaluation; real options.

MeSH terms

  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Decision Support Techniques
  • Drug-Eluting Stents / economics
  • Drug-Eluting Stents / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Technology Assessment, Biomedical / economics
  • Technology Assessment, Biomedical / methods*
  • Technology Transfer
  • Uncertainty