Trends in esophageal adenocarcinoma incidence and mortality

Cancer. 2013 Mar 15;119(6):1149-58. doi: 10.1002/cncr.27834. Epub 2012 Dec 11.


Background: Over the past several decades, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has rapidly increased. The purpose of this analysis was to examine temporal trends in EAC incidence and mortality within the US population and, in addition, to explore these trends within subgroups of the population.

Methods: The National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER 9) data were used to examine incidence and incidence-based (IB) mortality in EAC from 1975 to 2009. Secular trends in incidence and IB mortality by cancer stage, sex, and race were further characterized using the NCI's Joinpoint Regression program.

Results: Based on SEER 9 data, EAC incidence and IB mortality continues to increase in the United States. However, since the mid-1990s, the overall rate of increase in both EAC incidence and IB mortality appears to be slowing. In addition, in early-stage cancers, there is a noticeable leveling off of IB mortality rates and divergence from incidence starting in the late 1990s. Over the study period, the average annual percentage increase in incidence was 6.1% in men and 5.9% in women.

Conclusions: EAC incidence and IB mortality rates continue to rise in the United States, although at a slower rate in more recent years. In early-stage cancers, IB mortality and incidence rates have diverged primarily because IB mortality rates have plateaued beginning in the late 1990s. Although EAC continues to be less common in women, the rate of increase in EAC incidence is similar in both sexes.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Adenocarcinoma / epidemiology*
  • Adenocarcinoma / mortality
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / mortality
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • SEER Program
  • Sex Factors
  • United States / epidemiology