Wheat production in Bangladesh: its future in the light of global warming

Abstract

Background and aims: The most fundamental activity of the people of Bangladesh is agriculture. Modelling projections for Bangladesh indicate that warmer temperatures linked to climate change will severely reduce the growth of various winter crops (wheat, boro rice, potato and winter vegetables) in the north and central parts. In summer, crops in south-eastern parts of the country are at risk from increased flooding as sea levels increase.

Key facts: Wheat is one of the most important winter crops and is temperature sensitive and the second most important grain crop after rice. In this review, we provide an up-to-date and detailed account of wheat research of Bangladesh and the impact that global warming may have on agriculture, especially wheat production. Although flooding is not of major importance or consequence to the wheat crop at present, some perspectives are provided on this stress since wheat is flood sensitive and the incidence of flooding is likely to increase.

Projections: This information and projections will allow wheat breeders to devise new breeding programmes to attempt to mitigate future global warming. We discuss what this implies for food security in the broader context of South Asia.

Fig. 1

Yearly import (1000 MT) and growth rate (%) of wheat from 1971 to 2011 in Bangladesh. Growth rate (%) was calculated relative to the previous year's value (data source: Index Mundi 2012b).

Fig. 2

Domestic consumption (1000 MT) and growth rate (%) of wheat from 1960 to 2011 in Bangladesh. Growth rate (%) was calculated relative to the previous year's value (data source: Index Mundi 2012b).

Fig. 3

Yearly production (1000 MT) and growth rate (%) of wheat from 1960 to 2011 in Bangladesh. Growth rate (%) was calculated relative to the previous year's value (data source: Index Mundi 2012b).

Fig. 4

Area cultivated (1000 ha) and growth rate (%) of wheat from 1960 to 2011 in Bangladesh. Growth rate (%) was calculated relative to the previous year's value (data source: Index Mundi 2012b).

Fig. 5

Year of release and average yield (tons ha⁻¹) of Bangladesh wheat varieties developed since 1974 up until 2012. Figures in the centre of the bars indicate the year of release, while those above the bars indicate average yield (tons ha⁻¹). Bars in white indicate existing Bangladesh wheat varieties (i.e. bred in BARI) (data source: BARI 2012a).

Fig. 6

Beginning stock (▴ 1000 MT) for future security and growth rate (%) of wheat over the last 10 years (2002–2011) in Bangladesh. Bars indicate years from 2002 to 2011. The percentage values (±) in the bars indicate the growth rate relative to the previous year (data source: Index Mundi 2012b).