We present the ten- to 15-year follow-up of 31 patients (34 knees), who underwent an Elmslie-Trillat tibial tubercle osteotomy for chronic, severe patellar instability, unresponsive to non-operative treatment. The mean age of the patients at the time of surgery was 31 years (18 to 46) and they were reviewed post-operatively, at four years (2 to 8) and then at 12 years (10 to 15). All patients had pre-operative knee radiographs and Cox and Insall knee scores. Superolateral portal arthroscopy was performed per-operatively to document chondral damage and after the osteotomy to assess the stability of the patellofemoral joint. A total of 28 knees (82%) had a varying degree of damage to the articular surface. At final follow-up 25 patients (28 knees) were available for review and underwent clinical examination, radiographs of the knee, and Cox and Insall scoring. Six patients who had no arthroscopic chondral abnormality showed no or only early signs of osteoarthritis on final radiographs; while 12 patients with lower grade chondral damage (grade 1 to 2) showed early to moderate signs of osteoarthritis and six out of ten knees with higher grade chondral damage (grade 3 to 4) showed marked evidence of osteoarthritis; four of these had undergone a knee replacement. In the 22 patients (24 knees) with complete follow-up, 19 knees (79.2%) were reported to have a good or excellent outcome at four years, while 15 knees (62.5%) were reported to have the same at long-term follow-up. The functional and radiological results show that the extent of pre-operatively sustained chondral damage is directly related to the subsequent development of patellofemoral osteoarthritis.