A new surveillance and spatio-temporal visualization tool SIMID: SIMulation of infectious diseases using random networks and GIS

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the SIMID tool for simulation of the spread of infectious disease, enabling spatio-temporal visualization of the dynamics of influenza outbreaks. SIMID is based on modern random network methodology and implemented within the R and GIS frameworks. The key advantage of SIMID is that it allows not only for the construction of a possible scenario for the spread of an infectious disease but also for the assessment of mitigation strategies, variation and uncertainty in disease parameters and randomness in the progression of an outbreak. We illustrate SIMID by application to an influenza epidemic simulation in a population constructed to resemble the Region of Peel, Ontario, Canada.