Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China

PLoS One. 2013 Apr 11;8(4):e60849. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0060849. Print 2013.

Abstract

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Atmosphere / analysis
  • Biomass
  • Carbon Dioxide / analysis
  • China
  • Climate Change*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Ecosystem*
  • Geography
  • Models, Biological
  • Plant Physiological Phenomena*

Substances

  • Carbon Dioxide

Grants and funding

This study was supported by the National Scientific Technical Supporting Programs during the 12th Five-year Plan of China (2012BAC19B04, 2012BAC19B10). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.