Pitfalls of predicting complex traits from SNPs

Nat Rev Genet. 2013 Jul;14(7):507-15. doi: 10.1038/nrg3457.


The success of genome-wide association studies (GWASs) has led to increasing interest in making predictions of complex trait phenotypes, including disease, from genotype data. Rigorous assessment of the value of predictors is crucial before implementation. Here we discuss some of the limitations and pitfalls of prediction analysis and show how naive implementations can lead to severe bias and misinterpretation of results.

Publication types

  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Genetic Markers / genetics
  • Genetic Variation
  • Genome-Wide Association Study*
  • Genomics
  • Genotype
  • Humans
  • Models, Genetic
  • Models, Statistical
  • Phenotype*
  • Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide*
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk


  • Genetic Markers