Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

PLoS One. 2013 Jun 21;8(6):e67093. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0067093. Print 2013.

Abstract

Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote boom years for recruitment.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Anseriformes / physiology*
  • Arctic Regions
  • Breeding
  • Demography
  • Iceland
  • Population Dynamics
  • Seasons
  • Time Factors
  • Weather*

Grants and funding

This study was supported financially by the Icelandic Research Council (RANNIS), the Icelandic Agricultural Productivity fund (Framleiðnisjóður landbúnaðarins), the Icelandic eider-down farmers association (Æðarræktarfélag Íslands) and the University of Iceland. The funders had no involvement in study design, data collation or analysis, decision to publish, or manuscript preparation.