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. 2013 Jul;22(7):643-8.
doi: 10.1089/jwh.2012.4119.

Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020

Timothy M Dall  1 , Ritashree Chakrabarti, Michael V Storm, Erika C Elwell, William F Rayburn
Affiliations

Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020

Timothy M Dall et al. J Womens Health (Larchmt). 2013 Jul.

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the demand for women's health care by 2020 using today's national utilization standards.

Methods: This descriptive study incorporated the most current national data resources to design a simulation model to create a health and economic profile for a representative sample of women from each state. Demand was determined utilizing equations about projected use of obstetrics-gynecology (ob-gyn) services. Applying patient profile and health care demand equations, we estimated the demand for providers in 2010 in each state for comparison with supply based on the 2010 American Medical Association Masterfile. U.S. Census Bureau population projections were used to project women's health care demands in 2020.

Results: The national demand for women's health care is forecast to grow by 6% by 2020. Most (81%) ob-gyn related services will be for women of reproductive age (18-44 years old). Growth in demand is forecast to be highest in states with the greatest population growth (Texas, Florida), where supply is currently less than adequate (western United States), and among Hispanic women. This increase in demand by 2020 will translate into a need for physicians or nonphysician clinicians, which is clinically equivalent to 2,090 full-time ob-gyns.

Conclusion: Using today's national norms of ob-gyn related services, a modest growth in women's health care demands is estimated by 2020 that will require a larger provider workforce.

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Figures

FIG. 1.
FIG. 1.
Estimated demand for women's health care (full-time equivalents of obstetrician-gynecologists) by U.S. female population age group for years 2010 and 2020.
FIG. 2.
FIG. 2.
Estimated change in demand for women's health services by 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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