Predictors of stroke in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: results from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research trial

Stroke. 2013 Sep;44(9):2590-3. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.113.001177. Epub 2013 Jul 30.


Background and purpose: Risk factors for stroke are well-established in general populations but sparsely studied in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance.

Methods: We identified predictors of stroke among participants with impaired glucose tolerance in the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. Cox proportional-hazard regression models were constructed using baseline variables, including the 2 medications studied, valsartan and nateglinide.

Results: Among 9306 participants, 237 experienced a stroke over 6.4 years. Predictors of stroke included classical risk factors such as existing cerebrovascular and coronary heart disease, higher pulse pressure, higher low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, older age, and atrial fibrillation. Other factors, including previous venous thromboembolism, higher waist circumference, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, lower heart rate, and lower body mass index, provided additional important predictive information, yielding a C-index of 0.72. Glycemic measures were not predictive of stroke. Variables associated with stroke were similar in participants with no prior history of cerebrovascular disease at baseline.

Conclusions: The most powerful predictors of stroke in patients with impaired glucose tolerance included a combination of established risk factors and novel variables, such as previous venous thromboembolism and elevated waist circumference, allowing moderately effective identification of high-risk individuals.

Keywords: impaired glucose tolerance; stroke.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Antihypertensive Agents / therapeutic use
  • Comorbidity
  • Controlled Clinical Trials as Topic
  • Cyclohexanes / therapeutic use*
  • Drug Therapy, Combination
  • Female
  • Glucose Intolerance / drug therapy
  • Glucose Intolerance / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Hypoglycemic Agents / therapeutic use
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nateglinide
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care
  • Phenylalanine / analogs & derivatives*
  • Phenylalanine / therapeutic use
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Risk Factors
  • Stroke / epidemiology*
  • Stroke / etiology
  • Tetrazoles / therapeutic use*
  • Valine / analogs & derivatives*
  • Valine / therapeutic use
  • Valsartan


  • Antihypertensive Agents
  • Cyclohexanes
  • Hypoglycemic Agents
  • Tetrazoles
  • Nateglinide
  • Phenylalanine
  • Valsartan
  • Valine