A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: we are ready to ROC

J Pediatr Psychol. 2014 Mar;39(2):204-21. doi: 10.1093/jpepsy/jst062. Epub 2013 Aug 21.

Abstract

Objective: To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder.

Method: Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews.

Results: Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4.

Conclusions: This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses.

Keywords: diagnostic efficiency; evidence-based medicine; receiver operating characteristic analysis; sensitivity and specificity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Checklist
  • Child
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical*
  • Humans
  • Mood Disorders / diagnosis*
  • Parents
  • Psychiatric Status Rating Scales
  • Psychology, Child / methods*
  • ROC Curve*