Skip to main page content
Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
, 8 (8), e71788

Creating Larger and Better Connected Protected Areas Enhances the Persistence of Big Game Species in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity Hotspot


Creating Larger and Better Connected Protected Areas Enhances the Persistence of Big Game Species in the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany Biodiversity Hotspot

Enrico Di Minin et al. PLoS One.


The ideal conservation planning approach would enable decision-makers to use population viability analysis to assess the effects of management strategies and threats on all species at the landscape level. However, the lack of high-quality data derived from long-term studies, and uncertainty in model parameters and/or structure, often limit the use of population models to only a few species of conservation concern. We used spatially explicit metapopulation models in conjunction with multi-criteria decision analysis to assess how species-specific threats and management interventions would affect the persistence of African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion, under six reserve scenarios, thereby providing the basis for deciding on a best course of conservation action in the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biodiversity hotspot. Overall, the results suggest that current strategies of managing populations within individual, small, fenced reserves are unlikely to enhance metapopulation persistence should catastrophic events affect populations in the future. Creating larger and better-connected protected areas would ensure that threats can be better mitigated in the future for both African wild dog and leopard, which can disperse naturally, and black rhino, cheetah, elephant, and lion, which are constrained by electric fences but can be managed using translocation. The importance of both size and connectivity should inform endangered megafauna conservation and management, especially in the context of restoration efforts in increasingly human-dominated landscapes.

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.


Figure 1
Figure 1. Map of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, showing public, private and communal protected areas.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Modelling and decision analysis flowchart.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Habitat suitability maps for African wild dog, black rhino, cheetah, elephant, leopard and lion in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
Figure 4
Figure 4. The impact of an absolute increase or decrease of 5 and 10% in carrying capacity (K), and degree of catastrophe severity, on the probability of extinction.
Other parameters did not affect the probability of extinction significantly and were not included.

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by 8 articles

See all "Cited by" articles


    1. Bottrill MC, Joseph LN, Carwardine J, Bode M, Cook C, et al. (2008) Is conservation triage just smart decision making? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23: 649–654. - PubMed
    1. Joseph LN, Maloney RF, Possingham HP (2008) Optimal allocation of resources among threatened species: a project prioritization protocol. Conservation Biology 23: 328–338. - PubMed
    1. Burgman M, Lindenmayer DB, Elith J (2005) Managing landscapes for conservation under uncertainty. Ecology 86: 2007–2017.
    1. Nicholson E, Possingham HP (2007) Making conservation decisions under uncertainty for the persistence of multiple species. Ecological Applications 17: 251–265. - PubMed
    1. Di Minin E, Griffiths R (2011) Viability analysis of a threatened amphibian population: modelling the past, present and future. Ecography 34: 162–169.

Publication types

Grant support

The study was funded through a Panthera Kaplan Graduate Award and a US Fish & Wildlife Service Rhinoceros grant. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.