Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns

PLoS One. 2013 Aug 26;8(8):e71662. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0071662. eCollection 2013.

Abstract

Background: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods.

Methods: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay.

Results: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods.

Conclusions: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Algorithms*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / diagnosis*
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Immunoassay / methods*
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods*
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Switzerland / epidemiology
  • Time Factors

Grants and funding

This study has been conducted partially in the framework of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS), supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant # 33CS30_134277). In addition, the study was funded jointly by grants from the Swiss HIV Cohort Research Foundation (SHCS project # 560) and from Innogenetics NV, Ghent (Belgium). The latter provided the required Inno-Lia HIV I/II Score kits free of charge. The Swiss National Center for Retroviruses also received support for its work by contracts 07.005822, 09.001294, 10.001983 and 11.005726 with the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (SFOPH). The Zurich Primary HIV Infection (ZPHI) Study was supported in part by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant # 324730_130865 to HFG) and by the University of Zurich's Cinical Research Priority Program (CRPP) “Viral infectious diseases: Zurich Primary HIV Infection Study”. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.