We establish a computational approach to extract the bending modulus, KC , for lipid membranes from relatively small-scale molecular simulations. Fluctuations in the splay of individual pairs of lipids faithfully inform on KC in multicomponent membranes over a large range of rigidities in different thermodynamic phases. Predictions are validated by experiments even where the standard spectral analysis-based methods fail. The local nature of this method potentially allows its extension to calculations of KC in protein-laden membranes.