Unraveling R0: considerations for public health applications

Am J Public Health. 2014 Feb;104(2):e32-41. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301704. Epub 2013 Dec 12.


We assessed public health use of R0, the basic reproduction number, which estimates the speed at which a disease is capable of spreading in a population. These estimates are of great public health interest, as evidenced during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic. We reviewed methods commonly used to estimate R0, examined their practical utility, and assessed how estimates of this epidemiological parameter can inform mitigation strategy decisions. In isolation, R0 is a suboptimal gauge of infectious disease dynamics across populations; other disease parameters may provide more useful information. Nonetheless, estimation of R0 for a particular population is useful for understanding transmission in the study population. Considered in the context of other epidemiologically important parameters, the value of R0 may lie in better understanding an outbreak and in preparing a public health response.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Basic Reproduction Number / statistics & numerical data*
  • Disease Outbreaks / statistics & numerical data*
  • Epidemiologic Methods*
  • Humans
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Pandemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Public Health
  • Time Factors