Prognostic stratification in older adults commencing dialysis

J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2014 Aug;69(8):1033-9. doi: 10.1093/gerona/glt289. Epub 2014 Jan 30.


Background: Accurate prognostic models could inform treatment decisions for older adults with end-stage renal disease who are considering dialysis and might identify patients more appropriate for conservative care or hospice.

Methods: In a cohort of patients aged ≥ 67 years commencing dialysis in the United States between January 1, 2008 and June 30, 2009, we compared the discrimination of three existing instruments (the Liu index; the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network score; and hospice eligibility criteria) for the prediction of 6-month mortality. We estimated the odds of death associated with each prognostic index using logistic regression with and without adjustment for age. Predictive indices were compared using the concordance ("c")-statistic.

Results: Of 44,109 eligible patients, 10,289 (23.3%) died within 6 months of dialysis initiation. The c-statistic for the Liu, Renal Epidemiology and Information Network, hospice eligibility criteria, and combined Liu/hospice eligibility criteria scores without and with age were 0.62/0.65, 0.63/0.66, 0.65/0.68, and 0.68/0.70, respectively. Discrimination was poorer at older ages, especially for the Liu and Renal Epidemiology and Information Network scores. Although sensitivity was poor, a Renal Epidemiology and Information Network score ≥ 9 or an hospice eligibility criteria ≥ 3 had relatively high specificity.

Conclusions: Existing prognostic indices based on administrative data perform poorly with respect to prediction of 6-month mortality in older patients with end-stage renal disease commencing dialysis.

Keywords: Epidemiology.; Multimorbidities; Outcomes; Renal.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Comorbidity
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / epidemiology
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / mortality*
  • Kidney Failure, Chronic / therapy*
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Models, Statistical
  • Outcome Assessment, Health Care*
  • Prognosis
  • Renal Dialysis*
  • Risk Assessment