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, 21 Suppl 1, 60-89

Strategies to Manage Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Disease Burden

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Strategies to Manage Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) Disease Burden

H Wedemeyer et al. J Viral Hepat.

Abstract

The number of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections is projected to decline while those with advanced liver disease will increase. A modeling approach was used to forecast two treatment scenarios: (i) the impact of increased treatment efficacy while keeping the number of treated patients constant and (ii) increasing efficacy and treatment rate. This analysis suggests that successful diagnosis and treatment of a small proportion of patients can contribute significantly to the reduction of disease burden in the countries studied. The largest reduction in HCV-related morbidity and mortality occurs when increased treatment is combined with higher efficacy therapies, generally in combination with increased diagnosis. With a treatment rate of approximately 10%, this analysis suggests it is possible to achieve elimination of HCV (defined as a >90% decline in total infections by 2030). However, for most countries presented, this will require a 3-5 fold increase in diagnosis and/or treatment. Thus, building the public health and clinical provider capacity for improved diagnosis and treatment will be critical.

Keywords: HCV; diagnosis; disease burden; epidemiology; hepatitis C; incidence; mortality; prevalence; scenarios; treatment.

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