Risk prediction of complications of metabolic syndrome before and 6 years after gastric bypass

Surg Obes Relat Dis. Jul-Aug 2014;10(4):576-82. doi: 10.1016/j.soard.2014.01.025. Epub 2014 Jan 29.


Background: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery has been shown to have favorable effects on components of metabolic syndrome. However, the long-term effect of RYGB on predicted risk of end-organ complications is less clear. The objective of this study was to examine long-term changes in predicted risk of metabolic syndrome-related complications after RYGB.

Methods: The predicted risk of metabolic syndrome-related complications in a cohort of 131 diabetic patients was compared between baseline and last follow-up points after RYGB using validated risk assessment tools.

Results: After a median postsurgical follow-up time of 6 years (range, 5-9), a mean percent excess weight loss of 60.7 ± 25.1% was associated with a diabetes remission rate of 61%. At long-term follow-up, the levels of glycated hemoglobin, low-density lipoprotein, and blood pressure were within the recommended American Diabetes Association's goals in 85%, 73%, and 63% of patients, respectively (P<.001). RYGB was associated with a relative risk reduction of 27% for 10-year overall risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and peripheral vascular disease; 20% for 10-year risk of CHD; 40% for 10-year risk of myocardial infarction; 42% for 10-year risk of stroke; 47% for 4-year risk of intermittent claudication; 45% for 5-year risk of moderate-severe kidney disease; and 18% for 5-year risk of cardiovascular mortality. Four-year risk of diabetic retinopathy was also significantly decreased.

Conclusion: RYGB in diabetic patients results in remarkable control of diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, and is associated with a significant reduction in predicted risk of major complications including nephropathy, retinopathy, and cardiovascular disease and mortality in the range of 18-47% at long-term follow-up.

Keywords: Bariatric; Cardiovascular; Diabetes; Framingham; Metabolic; Morbid obesity; Mortality; Nephropathy; Retinopathy; Risk; Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; Stroke.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / epidemiology
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / prevention & control
  • Diabetic Retinopathy / epidemiology
  • Diabetic Retinopathy / prevention & control
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Gastric Bypass*
  • Humans
  • Kidney Diseases / epidemiology
  • Kidney Diseases / prevention & control
  • Male
  • Metabolic Syndrome / complications*
  • Metabolic Syndrome / mortality
  • Metabolic Syndrome / surgery*
  • Middle Aged
  • Obesity, Morbid / complications
  • Obesity, Morbid / mortality
  • Obesity, Morbid / surgery*
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Weight Loss
  • Young Adult