Background: Patients with myocardial infarction (MI) are at risk of the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. We sought to evaluate the prognostic performance of the CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores in predicting new AF and/or ischemic stroke in post-ST segment elevation MI (STEMI) patients. Six hundred and seven consecutive post-STEMI patients with no previously documented AF were studied.
Methods and results: After a follow-up of 63 months (3,184 patient-years), 83 (13.7%) patients developed new AF (2.8% per year). Patients with a high CHADS₂ and/or CHA₂DS₂-VASc score were more likely to develop new AF. The annual incidence of new AF was 1.18%, 2.10%, 4.52%, and 7.03% in patients with CHADS₂ of 0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3; and 0.39%, 1.72%, 1.83%, and 5.83% in patients with a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1, 2, 3 and ≥ 4. The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score (C-statistic = 0.676) was superior to the CHADS₂ (C-statistic = 0.632) for discriminating new AF. Ischemic stroke occurred in 29 patients (0.9% per year), the incidence increasing in line with the CHADS₂ (0.41%, 1.02%, 1.11%, and 1.95% with score of 0, 1, 2, and ≥ 3) and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores (0.39%, 0.49%, 1.02%, and 1.48% with score of 1, 2, 3 and ≥ 4). The C-statistic of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score as a predictor of ischemic stroke was 0.601, superior to that of CHADS₂ score (0.573). CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores can identify post-STEMI patients at high risk of AF and stroke.
Conclusions: The CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores can identify post-STEMI patients at high risk of AF and ischemic stroke. This enables close surveillance and prompt anticoagulation for stroke prevention.