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. 2014 Aug 30;384(9945):766-81.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60460-8. Epub 2014 May 29.

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children and Adults During 1980-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Marie Ng  1 Tom Fleming  1 Margaret Robinson  1 Blake Thomson  1 Nicholas Graetz  1 Christopher Margono  1 Erin C Mullany  1 Stan Biryukov  1 Cristiana Abbafati  2 Semaw Ferede Abera  3 Jerry P Abraham  4 Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh  5 Tom Achoki  6 Fadia S AlBuhairan  7 Zewdie A Alemu  8 Rafael Alfonso  9 Mohammed K Ali  10 Raghib Ali  11 Nelson Alvis Guzman  12 Walid Ammar  13 Palwasha Anwari  14 Amitava Banerjee  15 Simon Barquera  16 Sanjay Basu  17 Derrick A Bennett  11 Zulfiqar Bhutta  18 Jed Blore  19 Norberto Cabral  20 Ismael Campos Nonato  16 Jung-Chen Chang  21 Rajiv Chowdhury  22 Karen J Courville  23 Michael H Criqui  24 David K Cundiff  25 Kaustubh C Dabhadkar  10 Lalit Dandona  26 Adrian Davis  27 Anand Dayama  10 Samath D Dharmaratne  28 Eric L Ding  29 Adnan M Durrani  30 Alireza Esteghamati  31 Farshad Farzadfar  31 Derek F J Fay  27 Valery L Feigin  32 Abraham Flaxman  1 Mohammad H Forouzanfar  1 Atsushi Goto  33 Mark A Green  34 Rajeev Gupta  35 Nima Hafezi-Nejad  31 Graeme J Hankey  36 Heather C Harewood  37 Rasmus Havmoeller  38 Simon Hay  11 Lucia Hernandez  16 Abdullatif Husseini  39 Bulat T Idrisov  40 Nayu Ikeda  41 Farhad Islami  42 Eiman Jahangir  43 Simerjot K Jassal  44 Sun Ha Jee  45 Mona Jeffreys  46 Jost B Jonas  47 Edmond K Kabagambe  48 Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa  49 Andre Pascal Kengne  50 Yousef Saleh Khader  51 Young-Ho Khang  52 Daniel Kim  53 Ruth W Kimokoti  54 Jonas M Kinge  55 Yoshihiro Kokubo  56 Soewarta Kosen  57 Gene Kwan  58 Taavi Lai  59 Mall Leinsalu  60 Yichong Li  61 Xiaofeng Liang  62 Shiwei Liu  62 Giancarlo Logroscino  63 Paulo A Lotufo  64 Yuan Lu  29 Jixiang Ma  62 Nana Kwaku Mainoo  65 George A Mensah  66 Tony R Merriman  67 Ali H Mokdad  1 Joanna Moschandreas  68 Mohsen Naghavi  1 Aliya Naheed  69 Devina Nand  70 K M Venkat Narayan  10 Erica Leigh Nelson  1 Marian L Neuhouser  71 Muhammad Imran Nisar  18 Takayoshi Ohkubo  72 Samuel O Oti  73 Andrea Pedroza  16 Dorairaj Prabhakaran  74 Nobhojit Roy  75 Uchechukwu Sampson  48 Hyeyoung Seo  76 Sadaf G Sepanlou  77 Kenji Shibuya  78 Rahman Shiri  79 Ivy Shiue  80 Gitanjali M Singh  29 Jasvinder A Singh  81 Vegard Skirbekk  55 Nicolas J C Stapelberg  82 Lela Sturua  83 Bryan L Sykes  84 Martin Tobias  1 Bach X Tran  85 Leonardo Trasande  86 Hideaki Toyoshima  87 Steven van de Vijver  73 Tommi J Vasankari  88 J Lennert Veerman  89 Gustavo Velasquez-Melendez  90 Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov  91 Stein Emil Vollset  92 Theo Vos  1 Claire Wang  93 XiaoRong Wang  94 Elisabete Weiderpass  95 Andrea Werdecker  96 Jonathan L Wright  97 Y Claire Yang  98 Hiroshi Yatsuya  99 Jihyun Yoon  100 Seok-Jun Yoon  101 Yong Zhao  102 Maigeng Zhou  61 Shankuan Zhu  103 Alan D Lopez  19 Christopher J L Murray  1 Emmanuela Gakidou  104
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Free PMC article

Global, Regional, and National Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children and Adults During 1980-2013: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Marie Ng et al. Lancet. .
Free PMC article

Erratum in

  • Lancet. 2014 Aug 30;384(9945):746

Abstract

Background: In 2010, overweight and obesity were estimated to cause 3·4 million deaths, 3·9% of years of life lost, and 3·8% of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) worldwide. The rise in obesity has led to widespread calls for regular monitoring of changes in overweight and obesity prevalence in all populations. Comparable, up-to-date information about levels and trends is essential to quantify population health effects and to prompt decision makers to prioritise action. We estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980-2013.

Methods: We systematically identified surveys, reports, and published studies (n=1769) that included data for height and weight, both through physical measurements and self-reports. We used mixed effects linear regression to correct for bias in self-reports. We obtained data for prevalence of obesity and overweight by age, sex, country, and year (n=19,244) with a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression model to estimate prevalence with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Findings: Worldwide, the proportion of adults with a body-mass index (BMI) of 25 kg/m(2) or greater increased between 1980 and 2013 from 28·8% (95% UI 28·4-29·3) to 36·9% (36·3-37·4) in men, and from 29·8% (29·3-30·2) to 38·0% (37·5-38·5) in women. Prevalence has increased substantially in children and adolescents in developed countries; 23·8% (22·9-24·7) of boys and 22·6% (21·7-23·6) of girls were overweight or obese in 2013. The prevalence of overweight and obesity has also increased in children and adolescents in developing countries, from 8·1% (7·7-8·6) to 12·9% (12·3-13·5) in 2013 for boys and from 8·4% (8·1-8·8) to 13·4% (13·0-13·9) in girls. In adults, estimated prevalence of obesity exceeded 50% in men in Tonga and in women in Kuwait, Kiribati, Federated States of Micronesia, Libya, Qatar, Tonga, and Samoa. Since 2006, the increase in adult obesity in developed countries has slowed down.

Interpretation: Because of the established health risks and substantial increases in prevalence, obesity has become a major global health challenge. Not only is obesity increasing, but no national success stories have been reported in the past 33 years. Urgent global action and leadership is needed to help countries to more effectively intervene.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age–standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity (BMI>=25) and obesity (BMI>=30), ages 20+ years, by sex, 1980–2013
Figure 2
Figure 2
Age–standardized prevalence of overweight and obesity, and obesity alone (based on IOTF cutoffs), ages 2–19 years, by sex, 1980–2013
Figure 3
Figure 3
Prevalence of overweight and obesity (BMI>=25) and obesity (BMI>=30), by age and sex, 2013
Figure 4
Figure 4
Prevalence of obesity (BMI>=30) by age across birth cohorts for males and females in developed and developing countries
Figure 5A
Figure 5A
Age–standardized prevalence of obesity (BMI>=30), ages 20+ years, males, 2013
Figure 5B
Figure 5B
Age–standardized prevalence of obesity (BMI>=30), ages 20+ years, females, 2013
Figure 5C
Figure 5C
Age–standardized prevalence of obesity (based on IOTF cutoffs), ages 2–19 years, males, 2013
Figure 5D
Figure 5D
Age–standardized prevalence of obesity (based on IOTF cutoffs), ages 2–19 years, females, 2013

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