Pre-operative indicators for mortality following hip fracture surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Age Ageing. 2014 Jul;43(4):464-71. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afu065. Epub 2014 Jun 3.


Objective: hip fracture is a common and serious condition associated with high mortality. This study aimed to identify pre-operative characteristics which are associated with an increased risk of mortality after hip fracture surgery.

Design: systematic search of published and unpublished literature databases, including EMBASE, MEDLINE, AMED, CINAHL, PubMed and the Cochrane Library, was undertaken to identify all clinical studies on pre-operative predictors of mortality after surgery in hip fracture with at least 3-month follow-up. Data pertaining to the study objectives was extracted by two reviewers independently. Where study homogeneity was evidence, a meta-analysis of pooled relative risk and 95% confidence intervals was performed for mortality against pre-admission characteristics.

Results: fifty-three studies including 544,733 participants were included. Thirteen characteristics were identified as possible pre-operative indicators for mortality. Following meta-analysis, the four key characteristics associated with the risk of mortality up to 12 months were abnormal ECG (RR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.45, 2.76), cognitive impairment (RR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.35, 2.70), age >85 years (RR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.20, 0.90) and pre-fracture mobility (RR: 0.13; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.34). Other statistically significant pre-fracture predictors of increased mortality were male gender, being resident in a care institution, intra-capsular fracture type, high ASA grade and high Charlson comorbidity score on admission.

Conclusions: this review has identified the characteristics of patients with a high risk of mortality after a hip fracture surgery beyond the peri-operative period who may benefit from comprehensive assessment and appropriate management.

Prospero registration number: CRD42012002107.

Keywords: elderly; femoral fracture; mortality; older people; prognostic indicators; risk factors; systematic review.

Publication types

  • Meta-Analysis
  • Review
  • Systematic Review

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Cognition Disorders
  • Comorbidity
  • Electrocardiography
  • Female
  • Hip Fractures / mortality*
  • Hip Fractures / surgery*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Orthopedic Procedures*
  • Predictive Value of Tests*
  • Preoperative Period*
  • Risk Factors
  • Sex Factors
  • Survival Rate