Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, SCORE and WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk prediction models in an Asian population

Int J Cardiol. 2014 Sep;176(1):211-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2014.07.066. Epub 2014 Jul 15.

Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular risk-prediction models are used in clinical practice to identify and treat high-risk populations, and to communicate risk effectively. We assessed the validity and utility of four cardiovascular risk-prediction models in an Asian population of a middle-income country.

Methods: Data from a national population-based survey of 14,863 participants aged 40 to 65 years, with a follow-up duration of 73,277 person-years was used. The Framingham Risk Score (FRS), SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation)-high and -low cardiovascular-risk regions and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) models were assessed. The outcome of interest was 5-year cardiovascular mortality. Discrimination was assessed for all models and calibration for the SCORE models.

Results: Cardiovascular risk factors were highly prevalent; smoking 20%, obesity 32%, hypertension 55%, diabetes mellitus 18% and hypercholesterolemia 34%. The FRS and SCORE models showed good agreement in risk stratification. The FRS, SCORE-high and -low models showed good discrimination for cardiovascular mortality, areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.768, 0.774 and 0.775 respectively. The WHO/ISH model showed poor discrimination, AUC=0.613. Calibration of the SCORE-high model was graphically and statistically acceptable for men (χ(2) goodness-of-fit, p=0.097). The SCORE-low model was statistically acceptable for men (χ(2) goodness-of-fit, p=0.067). Both SCORE-models underestimated risk in women (p<0.001).

Conclusions: The FRS and SCORE-high models, but not the WHO/ISH model can be used to identify high cardiovascular risk in the Malaysian population. The SCORE-high model predicts risk accurately in men but underestimated it in women.

Keywords: Cardiovascular disease prevention; Mortality; Risk prediction; Risk score; Validation.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Asian Continental Ancestry Group / ethnology*
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / diagnosis*
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / ethnology*
  • Cross-Sectional Studies
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Hypertension / diagnosis
  • Hypertension / ethnology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Surveillance* / methods
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Risk Factors
  • Societies, Medical / standards*
  • World Health Organization*