Long-term survival and conditional survival of cancer patients in Japan using population-based cancer registry data

Cancer Sci. 2014 Nov;105(11):1480-6. doi: 10.1111/cas.12525. Epub 2014 Oct 18.


Although we usually report 5-year cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data, nowadays many cancer patients survive longer and need to be followed-up for more than 5 years. Long-term cancer survival figures are scarce in Japan. Here we report 10-year cancer survival and conditional survival using an established statistical approach. We received data on 1,387,489 cancer cases from six prefectural population-based cancer registries in Japan, diagnosed between 1993 and 2009 and followed-up for at least 5 years. We estimated the 10-year relative survival of patients who were followed-up between 2002 and 2006 using period analysis. Using this 10-year survival, we also calculated the conditional 5-year survival for cancer survivors who lived for some years after diagnosis. We reported 10-year survival and conditional survival of 23 types of cancer for 15-99-year-old patients and four types of cancer for children (0-14 years old) and adolescent and young adults (15-29 years old) patients by sex. Variation in 10-year cancer survival by site was wide, from 5% for pancreatic cancer to 95% for female thyroid cancer. Approximately 70-80% of children and adolescent and young adult cancer patients survived for more than 10 years. Conditional 5-year survival for most cancer sites increased according to years, whereas those for liver cancer and multiple myeloma did not increase. We reported 10-year cancer survival and conditional survival using population-based cancer registries in Japan. It is important for patients and clinicians to report these relevant figures using population-based data.

Keywords: Cancer; cancer registry; conditional survival; period analysis; survival.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Neoplasms / diagnosis
  • Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Population Surveillance*
  • Registries