Prognostic model for predicting overall survival in children and adolescents with rhabdomyosarcoma

BMC Cancer. 2014 Sep 5:14:654. doi: 10.1186/1471-2407-14-654.

Abstract

Background: The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model for the survival of pediatric patients with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) using parameters that are measured during routine clinical management.

Methods: Demographic and clinical variables were evaluated in 1679 pediatric patients with RMS registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program from 1990 to 2010. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was developed to predict median, 5-year and 10-year overall survival (OS). The Akaike information criterion technique was used for model selection. A nomogram was constructed using the reduced model after model selection, and was internally validated.

Results: Of the total 1679 patients, 543 died. The 5-year OS rate was 64.5% (95% confidence interval (CI), 62.1-67.1%) and the 10-year OS was 61.8% (95%CI, 59.2-64.5%) for the entire cohort. Multivariate analysis identified age at diagnosis, tumor size, histological type, tumor stage, surgery and radiotherapy as significantly associated with survival (p < 0.05). The bootstrap-corrected c-index for the model was 0.74. The calibration curve suggested that the model was well calibrated for all predictions.

Conclusions: This study provided an objective analysis of all currently available data for pediatric RMS from the SEER cancer registry. A nomogram based on parameters that are measured on a routine basis was developed. The nomogram can be used to predict 5- and 10-year OS with reasonable accuracy. This information will be useful for estimating prognosis and in guiding treatment selection.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Age Factors
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Neoplasm Staging
  • Nomograms
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Rhabdomyosarcoma / epidemiology
  • Rhabdomyosarcoma / mortality*
  • Rhabdomyosarcoma / pathology*
  • Survival Analysis*
  • Survival Rate
  • Treatment Outcome