Bayesian belief networks in business continuity

J Bus Contin Emer Plan. Autumn 2014;8(1):20-30.


Business continuity professionals aim to mitigate the various challenges to the continuity of their company. The goal is a coherent system of measures that encompass detection, prevention and recovery. Choices made in one part of the system affect other parts as well as the continuity risks of the company. In complex organisations, however, these relations are far from obvious. This paper proposes the use of Bayesian belief networks to expose these relations, and presents a modelling framework for this approach.

Keywords: Bayesian networks; effect measurement in business continuity; quantitative business continuity management.