A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks

H Landquist; L Rosén; A Lindhe; T Norberg; I-M Hassellöv; J F Lindgren; I Dahllöf

doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.08.037

A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks

Mar Pollut Bull. 2014 Nov 15;88(1-2):239-48. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.08.037. Epub 2014 Sep 18.

Authors

H Landquist¹, L Rosén², A Lindhe³, T Norberg⁴, I-M Hassellöv⁵, J F Lindgren⁶, I Dahllöf⁷

Affiliations

¹ Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: hanna.landquist@chalmers.se.
² Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: lars.rosen@chalmers.se.
³ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: andreas.lindhe@chalmers.se.
⁴ Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: tommy.norberg@chalmers.se.
⁵ Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: ida-maja@chalmers.se.
⁶ Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: f.lindgren@chalmers.se.
⁷ Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 461, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: ingela.dahllof@bioenv.gu.se.

PMID: 25240740
DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.08.037

Abstract

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation.

Keywords: Fault tree analysis; Oil; Risk assessment; Shipwreck.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Accidents*
Decision Making
Environment
Hazardous Substances
Models, Theoretical*
Monte Carlo Method
Probability
Risk Assessment / methods*
Ships*
Uncertainty

Substances

Hazardous Substances