The likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: a binary logistic regression model for possible factors

Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Dec;73:242-51. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.09.012. Epub 2014 Sep 22.


In past several decades, many countries have set quantified road safety targets to motivate transport authorities to develop systematic road safety strategies and measures and facilitate the achievement of continuous road safety improvement. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction, in both the short and long run, by comparing road fatalities before and after the implementation of a quantified road safety target. However, not much work has been done to evaluate whether the quantified road safety targets are actually achieved. In this study, we used a binary logistic regression model to examine the factors - including vehicle ownership, fatality rate, and national income, in addition to level of ambition and duration of target - that contribute to a target's success. We analyzed 55 quantified road safety targets set by 29 countries from 1981 to 2009, and the results indicate that targets that are in progress and with lower level of ambitions had a higher likelihood of eventually being achieved. Moreover, possible interaction effects on the association between level of ambition and the likelihood of success are also revealed.

Keywords: Binary logistic regression; Interaction effect; Level of ambition; Road fatality; Road safety target.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Accidents, Traffic / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Logistic Models
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Motivation*
  • Probability
  • Quality Improvement*
  • Safety / standards*
  • Transportation / standards*