Prognostic impact of supraventricular premature complexes in community-based health checkups: the Ibaraki Prefectural Health Study

Eur Heart J. 2015 Jan 14;36(3):170-8. doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehu407. Epub 2014 Oct 29.


Aims: The long-term prognosis of subjects with supraventricular premature complexes (SVPCs) remains unclear in the general population. The aim of this study was to examine the prognostic significance of SVPCs in community-based health checkups.

Methods and results: We assessed 63 197 individuals (mean age, 58.8 ± 9.9 years; 67.6% women) who participated in annual community-based health checkups in 1993 and were followed until 2008. The primary endpoint was stroke death, cardiovascular death (CVD), or all-cause death during a 14-year mean follow-up, and the secondary endpoint was first atrial fibrillation (AF) event in subjects without self-reported heart diseases or AF at baseline. Compared with subjects without SVPCs, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) [95% confidence interval (CI)] of stroke death, CVD, and all-cause death in subjects with SVPCs were 1.24 (0.98-1.56) for men and 1.63 (1.30-2.05) for women, 1.22 (1.04-1.44) for men and 1.48 (1.25-1.74) for women, and 1.08 (0.99-1.18) for men and 1.21 (1.09-1.34) for women, respectively. Atrial fibrillation occurred in 386 subjects during the follow-up (1.05/1000 person-years). The presence of SVPCs at baseline was the significant predictor of AF onset [HRs (95% CI): 4.87 (3.61-6.57) for men and 3.87 (2.69-5.57) for women]. Propensity score matched analyses also revealed the presence of SVPCs was significantly associated with increased risks of AF incidence and CVD even after adjusting the potential confounders.

Conclusion: The presence of SVPCs in 12-lead electrocardiograms was a strong predictor of AF development, and associated with increased risk of CVD in general population.

Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Electrocardiogram; Mortality; Supraventricular premature complex.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Atrial Fibrillation / diagnosis
  • Atrial Fibrillation / mortality
  • Atrial Premature Complexes / diagnosis*
  • Atrial Premature Complexes / mortality
  • Cardiovascular Diseases / mortality
  • Community Health Services
  • Early Diagnosis
  • Electrocardiography
  • Epidemiologic Methods
  • Female
  • Health Promotion / methods*
  • Humans
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Physical Examination / methods
  • Prognosis
  • Stroke / mortality