Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations

Bull Math Biol. 2014 Dec;76(12):3122-37. doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-0047-3. Epub 2014 Nov 26.

Abstract

We consider a stochastic population model, where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation approach coupled with a (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) WKB approximation is used to construct the optimal path to extinction. In addition, a probabilistic argument is used to understand the pre-extinction dynamics and approximate the mean time to extinction. Analytical results agree well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. A control method is implemented to decrease the mean time to extinction. Analytical results quantify the effectiveness of the control and agree well with numerical simulations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Population Dynamics*
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Time Factors