Aim: As the incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) increased considerably since 2007, this study aimed to project the burden of EC to the year 2030.
Methods: Multivariate linear regression was used to project EC incidence by modeling trends in EC incidence from 1990 to 2013, while accounting for temporal changes in obesity, hysterectomy and smoking.
Results: The best-fitting model predicting EC rates included a time effect plus effects for hysterectomy (12-year lag), severe obesity (3-year lag) and smoking (9-year lag). The best-fitting model projected an increase to 42.13 EC cases per 100,000 by the year 2030, a 55% increase over 2010 EC rates.
Conclusion: The projected increase of EC over next 16 years indicates the need for close monitoring of EC trends.
Keywords: endometrial cancer; future projections; incidence; obesity; prevention.