USA endometrial cancer projections to 2030: should we be concerned?

Future Oncol. 2014 Dec;10(16):2561-8. doi: 10.2217/fon.14.192.


Aim: As the incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) increased considerably since 2007, this study aimed to project the burden of EC to the year 2030.

Methods: Multivariate linear regression was used to project EC incidence by modeling trends in EC incidence from 1990 to 2013, while accounting for temporal changes in obesity, hysterectomy and smoking.

Results: The best-fitting model predicting EC rates included a time effect plus effects for hysterectomy (12-year lag), severe obesity (3-year lag) and smoking (9-year lag). The best-fitting model projected an increase to 42.13 EC cases per 100,000 by the year 2030, a 55% increase over 2010 EC rates.

Conclusion: The projected increase of EC over next 16 years indicates the need for close monitoring of EC trends.

Keywords: endometrial cancer; future projections; incidence; obesity; prevention.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Endometrial Neoplasms / complications
  • Endometrial Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Endometrial Neoplasms / pathology
  • Endometrial Neoplasms / surgery
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Hysterectomy / adverse effects
  • Obesity / complications
  • Obesity / epidemiology*
  • Obesity / pathology
  • Smoking / epidemiology*
  • Smoking / pathology
  • United States