The aging population is anticipated to have a large impact on the number of incident dialysis patients, as the risk of end-stage kidney disease increases with age. This study aimed to examine trends in the sex- and age-specific incidence rates of dialysis between 2008 and 2012, and to assess the impact of population aging on the number of incident dialysis patients over the next decade in Japan. Incidence was calculated using published data and Japan's population statistics. The 2012 incidence was extrapolated, and projected future demographic changes within the Japanese population were used to estimate the number of incident dialysis patients in 2020 and 2025. As a general trend, the sex- and age-specific incidence rates of dialysis decreased gradually between 2008 and 2012, except among men aged ≥80 years. The total number of incident dialysis patients was projected to increase by 12.8% from 36 590 in 2012 to 41 270 in 2025. Greater increases were observed in the oldest age group (≥85 years). In 2025, the number of incident dialysis patients in this group was projected to increase by 92.6% in men and 62.2% in women. This study shows the number of patients who initiate dialysis treatment is projected to increase over the next decade in Japan due to aging of the population. Effective strategies are needed to offset the challenges faced by the aging population, with a particular focus on octogenarians and older, given the notable proportion of patients requiring dialysis treatment in the future.
Keywords: Aging; Dialysis; Epidemiology; Incidence; Population projection.
© 2014 The Authors. Therapeutic Apheresis and Dialysis © 2014 International Society for Apheresis.