Inference for dynamic and latent variable models via iterated, perturbed Bayes maps

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Jan 20;112(3):719-24. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1410597112. Epub 2015 Jan 7.

Abstract

Iterated filtering algorithms are stochastic optimization procedures for latent variable models that recursively combine parameter perturbations with latent variable reconstruction. Previously, theoretical support for these algorithms has been based on the use of conditional moments of perturbed parameters to approximate derivatives of the log likelihood function. Here, a theoretical approach is introduced based on the convergence of an iterated Bayes map. An algorithm supported by this theory displays substantial numerical improvement on the computational challenge of inferring parameters of a partially observed Markov process.

Keywords: Markov process; maximum likelihood; particle filter; sequential Monte Carlo.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bayes Theorem*
  • Cholera / epidemiology
  • Cholera / transmission
  • Humans
  • Likelihood Functions
  • Models, Theoretical*