An updated report on the trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan, 1958-2013

Abstract

The analysis of cancer trends in Japan requires periodic updating. Herein, we present a comprehensive report on the trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Japan using recent population-based data. National cancer mortality data between 1958 and 2013 were obtained from published vital statistics. Cancer incidence data between 1985 and 2010 were obtained from high-quality population-based cancer registries of three prefectures (Yamagata, Fukui and Nagasaki). Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to examine the trends in age-standardized rates of cancer incidence and mortality. All-cancer mortality decreased from the mid-1990s, with an annual percent change of -1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.4, -1.3). During the most recent 10 years, over 60% of the decrease in cancer mortality was accounted for by a decrease in stomach and liver cancers (63% for males and 66% for females). The long-term increase in female breast cancer mortality, beginning in the 1960s, plateaued in 2008. All-cancer incidence continuously increased, with annual percent changes of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5, 0.8) between 1985 and 2005, and 1.8% (95% CI: 0.6, 2.9) between 2005 and 2010. During the most recent 10 years, almost half of the increase in cancer incidence was accounted for by an increase in prostate cancer (60%) in males and breast cancer (46%) in females. The cancer registry quality indices also began to increase from ∼2005. Decreases in stomach and liver cancers observed for incidence and mortality reflect the reduced attribution of infection-related factors (i.e. Helicobacter pylori and hepatitis virus). However, it should be noted that cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates began to increase from ∼1990.

Keywords: cancer; incidence; mortality; neoplasms; population surveillance.