Background: It is important to identify an easily defined subset of patients at increased risk of adverse clinical outcomes associated with mineral and bone disorder (MBD) biomarkers (parathyroid hormone, calcium and phosphate).
Methods: Observational cohort study of 26 221 prevalent hemodialysis patients in Davita clinics as of 31 August 2005 and followed up until 31 December 2006 (16 months). Predictors were 12 possible definitions of 'clinically important' MBD based on all 3 biomarkers, and 18 alternative definitions based on only 1 or 2 biomarkers. Events were death alone and a composite of cardiovascular hospitalization or death. Excess events were calculated based on a multivariate Cox model using 5224 patients in target for all MBD biomarkers and applied to 20 997 patients out of target for at least one biomarker. Excess events attributable to MBD were estimated by subtracting the multivariate model-derived predicted number from the actual number. Outcomes were the proportion of excess events attributable to MBD captured by each definition (threshold ≥70%) and the reduction in the population size considered to have clinically important MBD (threshold ≥30%). The excess fraction was excess events divided by actual events.
Results: Patients with more biochemical markers out of target tended to be younger, black and have longer times since starting dialysis. The excess fraction associated with MBD ranged from ∼10 to 26% depending on the clinical endpoint and definition. The only definition to meet the thresholds required at least two of the three MBD biomarkers to be out of target (high or low). It captured 82% of excess composite endpoints and 74% of excess deaths and reduced the at-risk population by 46%.
Conclusions: Patients with at least two of three MBD biomarkers out of target represent a subgroup of patients at elevated risk of adverse clinical events.
Keywords: CKD-MBD; cardiovascular disease; death; hemodialysis; risk prediction.
© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA.