Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size

J Math Biol. 2016 Jan;72(1-2):171-202. doi: 10.1007/s00285-015-0878-z. Epub 2015 Apr 4.

Abstract

We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches.

Keywords: Allele coexistence; Demographic Wright-Fisher diffusion processes; Diploid populations; Quasi-stationary distributions; Stochastic slow-fast dynamical systems.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Alleles
  • Animals
  • Diploidy*
  • Female
  • Hermaphroditic Organisms / genetics
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Mathematical Concepts
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Genetic
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics*
  • Reproduction
  • Stochastic Processes