Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models

Epidemics. 2015 Mar:10:49-53. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.006. Epub 2014 Sep 27.

Abstract

Deterministic models have a long history of being applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. We highlight and discuss nine challenges in this area. The first two concern the endemic equilibrium and its stability. We indicate the need for models that describe multi-strain infections, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where superinfection is possible. We then consider the need for advances in spatial epidemic models, and draw attention to the lack of models that explore the relationship between communicable and non-communicable diseases. The final two challenges concern the uses and limitations of deterministic models as approximations to stochastic systems.

Keywords: Deterministic models; Endemic equilibrium; Multi-strain systems; Non-communicable diseases; Spatial models.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Communicable Diseases / epidemiology
  • Communicable Diseases / transmission
  • Endemic Diseases / statistics & numerical data
  • Epidemics / statistics & numerical data*
  • Epidemiologic Factors
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Superinfection