Background: Data estimating the recurrence and risk of death are lacking in low and middle income countries, where two thirds of the stroke burden occurs. Previously we had shown that the incidence and mortality have been decreasing over the last 18 years in Joinville, Southern Brazil. In this study, we aim to determine the recurrence rates, survival rates and the cause of death in 3 years after their first-ever incident in a urban population-based setting.
Methods: From the Joinville Stroke Registry, we identified all the cases of first-ever stroke that occurred from October 2009 to September 2010. Multiple overlapping sources of information were used to ensure the completeness of case identification. Patients were followed up prospectively at regular intervals from 30-days to 3 years after the index event. Kaplan-Meir and Cox proportional hazards were used to assess the cumulative risk of death and recurrence.
Results: We registered 407 first-ever stroke patients. After 3 years, 136 (33%) had died. In the first year of stroke the risk of death was 28% (95% CI, 25 to 32). Beyond the first year, approximately 3 to 5% of survivors died each year. The cumulative risk of death in ischemic stroke (IS) subtypes was 3.6 higher for cardioembolic (CE) IS (hazard ratio 3.6, 95% CI, 2.1 to 6.4; p = 0.001) and 3.3 times higher for undetermined IS (HR 3.3, 95% CI 1.9 to 5.8; p = 0.001) compared to small artery occlusion IS. Over 3 years, the overall stroke recurrence risk was 9% (35/407). We found no difference in stroke recurrence risk between IS subtypes. Cardiovascular disease was the main cause of death all follow up time.
Conclusions: Compared to other cohort studies conducted between 10 and 20 years ago in high-income countries, our recurrence rates and 3-year risk of death were similar. Among IS subtypes, we confirmed that CE has highest risk of death. The most common cause of death after a first-ever stroke is cardiovascular disease. This has implications for the uptake of current secondary preventive strategies and the development of new strategies.